🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."