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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.